ABSTRACT
Background: Vaccination has been the most important measure to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. The vaccination coverage was relatively low in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region China, compared to Singapore, in early 2022. Hypothetically, if the two regions, Hong Kong (HK) and Singapore (SG), swap their vaccination coverage rate, what outcome would occur? Method: We adopt the Susceptible - Vaccinated - Exposed - Infectious - Hospitalized - Death - Recovered model with a time-varying transmission rate and fit the model to weekly reported COVID-19 deaths (the data up to 2022 Nov 4) in HK and SG using R package POMP. After we obtain a reasonable fitting, we rerun our model with the estimated parameter values and swap the vaccination rates between HK and SG to explore what would happen. Results: Our model fits the data well. The reconstructed transmission rate was higher in HK than in SG in 2022. With a higher vaccination rate as in SG, the death total reported in HK would decrease by 37.5% and the timing of the peak would delay by 3 weeks. With a lower vaccination rate as in HK, the death total reported in SG would increase to 5.5-fold high with a peak 6 weeks earlier than the actual during the Delta variant period. Conclusions: Vaccination rate changes in HK and SG may lead to very different outcomes. This is likely due that the estimated transmission rates were very different in HK and SG which reflect the different control policies and dominant variants. Because of strong control measures, HK avoided large-scale community transmission of the Delta variant. Given the high breakthrough infection rate and transmission rate of the Omicron variant, increasing the vaccination rate in HK will likely yield a mild (but significant) contribution in terms of lives saved. While in SG, lower vaccination coverage to the level of HK will be disastrous.